石头丁 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/ Sun, 30 Mar 2008 06:46:51 +0800 搜狐博客 2635074792 http://blog.sohu.com http://js.pp.sohu.com/ppp/blog/images/common/logo_150_60.gif http://blog.sohu.com/ 100 43 搜狐博客 经济困境中的最后稻草----爹妈？ http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/83236512.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/83236512.html#comment 石头丁 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 06:46:51 +0800 转贴 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/83236512.html http://user.qzone.qq.com/5603757/blog/1206770216]]> 浓墨重彩画庐山 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/75911028.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/75911028.html#comment 石头丁 Mon, 7 Jan 2008 18:07:39 +0800 转贴 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/75911028.html
浓墨重彩画庐山

——著名山水画大家杨豹与他的“庐山风光系列组画”

万 圣 兴

     深邃豁达，潇洒从容，谦和儒雅的著名山水画大家杨豹，今年 67 岁，江西省万载人氏。原省政协委员、民盟盟员。
   杨豹 教授 1960 年由江西师范大学艺术系毕业分配到庐山工作，在庐山整整度过了四十七个春夏秋冬。他一踏上这座千古名山，立即被庐山大自然的绮丽景色所吸引，所震撼。面对这如诗如画的人文与自然景观，杨豹兴奋而陶醉，艺术创作的激情和冲动使他立志扎根庐山，把庐山的人文情怀和自然大美奉献给所有热爱庐山的人们。
   在庐山漫长的创作岁月里，天赐良机，杨豹奇迹般的相继与李可染、陆俨少、张仃、赵丹、关山月、唐云等艺术大师从相遇到相知。李可染为其题写的“正道苍桑”以及陆俨少、赵丹、关山月、唐云等赠送的寄语书画，成为他立志攀登艺术高峰的座右铭。特别是李可染嘱咐他：“画好庐山，就是对中国画的巨大贡献”的话语，时时激励着他前行！继而成为他铸造庐山画魂的原动力。
   为了画好庐山，他博览群书，特别对古典文学、画史画论进行了深入研究，尤其对历代文人墨客赞扬描绘庐山的诗词文
赋着实下了一番功夫。他遵循“观今宜鉴古，无古不成今。”的古训，善于从中吸取养分，进行今与古的“艺术对话”，并用自己独特的审美视角和现代审美意识，透析与揭示出历代文人墨客诗词文赋的内涵与深层，探求古人的心迹与对庐山的人文情怀，把宏观上的理性思考与现实对接，并转换成艺术创作的微观动机，从而在继承传统文化的同时，让创新思想无限衍生，以求达到自臻趋骛和丰富绘画的知识含量以及营造出属于自己，亦属于庐山的独特意境之目的。同时，亦为他日后的绘画艺术创作储备了多元的综合素养。
   为了画好庐山，他千百回地在云雾变幻的气象景观中感怀人生；他千百回地在高峡飞瀑的自然景观中陶冶情操；他千百回地在群峰籍典中激发灵感；他千百回地认识到：只有走进生活，走进庐山，才能走进属于庐山的独特艺术。
   四十七年来，杨豹不受画坛时风弥漫，不为金钱所累，不轻易步入世俗后尘，而是不时地调整攀登的座标。山一重水一重，背着画夹，带着干粮，穿行在一条又一条深峡幽谷，攀登在一座又一座奇峰异障。无论是五翁并坐的五老峰，还是气吞鄱湖的含鄱口；无论是霞落云飞的小天池，还是气势磅礴的三叠泉，都留下了杨豹的身影和足迹。随着时间的推移，杨豹经过不断地磨砺，不断地探索，不断地追求，从而奇迹般地创意出独具特色，摄人心魄的“庐山风光系列组画”。从而为“庐山画派”的形成与发展奠定了坚实的基础。
   杨豹的“庐山风光系列组画”，在整体上摆脱了前人传统笔墨的窠臼。他大胆吸收西洋画的用光用色等诸多长处，采用夸张与写实相结合的表现形式，使作品构图新颖，笔墨和谐，意境幽远，具有粗犷中见精微，透逸中显雅丽的特点。他的作品透发出灵幻秀卓之气，洋溢着一种恢宏博大的艺术意蕴，使之形成清新、明快、典雅、雄奇的艺术风格。
   杨豹时时牢记 张仃 先生的教诲：要画好庐山，水墨的运用十分重要。导师的点拨，使他豁然开朗，他清楚地意识到水墨的妙用更能体现庐山的风采和精神，更能传递自己的情感和意兴，更能揭示出庐山的真面目。于是乎，他充分利用了传统水墨中的水调墨、水带墨、水破墨以及渍水，泼水、铺水等方法，运用之妙，存乎一心，使画面达到了水墨淋漓的最佳效应。他在创作中既注重水墨的宏观运筹，整体效应，又十分注重水墨流动中细微末节的修饰、加工、规整。同时，把诗的韵律，音乐的节奏，以及文学的比喻、象征、寓意等手法巧妙地融合到笔墨和章法之中，使画面呈现出流溢之美，晕化之美，积淀之美，艺术之美。使观赏者透视“四美”以及似具象、似意象、似抽象的山脉走势和泱泱水气，感受到一片迷朦神奇的庐山烟云在不断地流动。好梦幻！好诱人！！好惬意！！！
   杨豹的画以写山为主。庐山的险峰峻岭，奇山怪石有着独特的风貌。杨豹在写山的用笔上讲究刚柔并济与轻重疾徐，讲究浓淡枯湿与转折顿挫，讲究气韵和空灵，讲究庐山别具一格的山脉走势和层次肌理，并注意与季节环境相吻合，注重山的特征与创新。同时，他以自己的庐山经历和体验，有感而发，有情而抒，使画面意境更具时代气息。这种时代感和现代感，不仅拓展了中国山水画的“意境”范围，而且给历史家、文学家、政治家以深刻的启示。杨豹用自己独特的绘画语言和形式提升了宋代文学家苏东坡脍炙人口的绝句：“横看成岭侧成峰，远近高低各不同，不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”的意境和内质。
   杨豹的画又以云水取胜。他画泉泉有声，画云云在行。他的庐山山水画重气势，讲神韵，笔墨翻新灵活，富于变幻。或雄奇，或清秀，或奔放，或宁静，错综复杂中寓有条理，手法多变中追求大美。无论是豪情奔放的三叠泉，还是飞流直下三千尺的瀑布；无论是雨后纯净的溪水，还是喷珠吐玉的龙潭，都显得那么自然，那么超脱，那么纯净。他把主观感受和意念激情充分恣肆，赋予笔墨以盎然生机与质量感、生命感。我们可以从画面气息上感受到，庐山的景观状态的微妙变化。同时，亦可感觉到作者诡奇多变的笔墨技法的娴熟运用。
   描绘“佛光”是杨豹庐山山水画中的绝招，《佛光含影》等作品，采用抒情写意与印象描绘相结合的方法，以水墨为主，以淡彩为辅，结合不同季节，不同时间，不同视觉将佛光这一物理现象人格化、意象化，细腻而洒脱地营造出一种空朦静谧的气象景观，把人带进幽深，梦幻的艺术境界。给人一种超凡脱俗的空灵之感。“佛光”的表现有着一种全新的审美情趣。
   庐山的冬天，银装素裹，分外妖娆。杨豹在表现匡庐之冬时，擅用自家的“点子功”，白点、黑点、彩点，点点含意，点点寄情。杨豹的雪景图系列组画，巧妙运用光影效果，画面冬意浓浓，白雪飘逸，好一派庐山冬日的奇异景致，使人顿生赏冬景有感，状冬物抒怀的雅兴。同时，给人一种振奋，一种激荡，一种独特的艺术享受。
   纵观杨豹的“庐山风光系列组画”，庐山的四季真是“春如梦，夏如泣，秋如醉，冬如玉”，庐山真面目在杨豹的如椽之笔的挥洒中，被揭示得淋漓尽致，被浓墨重彩描绘的形神兼备，惟妙惟肖。
   庐山，有着神奇的风光；庐山，有着迷人的诱惑。衷情于庐山的杨豹，把自己的青春献给了庐山，把一生中最辉煌的色彩献给了庐山，他的画卷上才会有比青春更加五彩缤纷的色彩！

]]> 以山为巢 扬帆千里 ——庐山青年画家杨帆 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/75910863.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/75910863.html#comment 石头丁 Mon, 7 Jan 2008 18:06:20 +0800 读书笔记 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/75910863.html  

以山为巢 扬帆千里 ——记庐山青年画家杨帆
 文章来源:记者 田超成

       一双灵动的手，一支飘逸的笔，描绘了一幅幅清新脱俗的山水花鸟画卷，既传递了朴素的情感和意境，又体现了庐山的风采和精神。
      一个普通平凡的画坛新秀，一位年轻漂亮的妙龄女子，不羡慕外面世界的精彩纷呈，秉承其父“以山为巢”的理念，毅然决然投身于大山的怀抱中。她，就是庐山画院的一名普通职工，一位２０出头却已多次获得省级以上荣誉的小才女，一颗在庐山这一古老山涧中茁壮成长的新苗。她有一个很大气的名字——杨帆。


       ２００３年大学毕业的杨帆，在短短四年内便成长为江西省书法家协会会员、江西省美术家协会会员，庐山美术家协会理事。从２００５年开始，有作品多次入选江西省文联、江西省书法家协会、江西省美术家协会举办的展览。近期，“交流与展望”杨帆个人中国书画展在庐山画院举行。如今，在世界文化遗产所在地庐山，尽管文化名人众多，但提起杨帆也是小有名气。是什么能让她迅速成长呢？
      勤“看”
      杨帆出生在艺术世家。现在提起庐山的美术，没有不知道杨豹的，那就是杨帆的父亲。杨豹１９８５年创办庐山画院，从事山水画创作工作近５０年，早已是中国美术家协会会员。杨帆的母亲也是学习文博专业的，原为庐山博物馆讲解员。在探索庐山历代名人佳作中，她给杨帆讲了许多作品的时代背景和真迹收藏等知识，为杨帆进一步了解庐山的自然变化和历代大师各个时期的绘画技法，起了较大的引导作用。
      儿童时杨帆就拿着小画本，跟着父亲翻山越岭，穿林跳涧，在庐山的大自然中学习写生。虽然是随心所欲的涂鸦，但在她幼小的心中已经朦胧有着爱山、爱水、爱大自然的感觉。中学读书期间，父亲在杨帆学习空闲时，给她讲山水、花鸟、人物画的基本知识，教习素描和水粉画，也经常外出写生，使杨帆从小就对绘画产生了浓厚的兴趣。
在杨帆还小的时候，她更多的是看父亲作画。父亲每天早晨６点钟起床作画，她都要起来跟着看。父亲的画构图新颖，具有粗犷中见精微，秀逸中显雅致的特点。他的画以山水取胜，画面生机盎然，充满了气度和神韵，经常看父亲作画使杨帆在水墨画的表现形式和笔墨技法上就有过人的领悟能力。
      勤“思”
      俗话说：观今宜鉴古，无古不成今，作画也是如此，杨帆明白这个道理。她在画水墨画前，经常阅读历代名人写庐山的诗词和历代绘画大师画庐山的画卷。如陶渊明的饮酒诗，李白的庐山瀑布诗，白居易的咏桃花诗，苏东坡的千古绝句，她都背得滚瓜烂熟。还有五代荆浩的《匡庐图》，元代赵孟（拼兆页）的《庐山图》，明代唐寅的《庐山三峡桥图》、清代石涛的《庐山图》，她也是烂熟于心。
在临摹、借鉴古人作品的同时，杨帆勤于思考。看到明代沈周的《庐山高图》，她琢磨这幅画是怎样采用高远法，一方面烘托了大师的高尚品质，同时又衬托了学生对大师的尊敬。就这样，通过阅读、临摹，思考历代名人佳作，杨帆对庐山的传统文化、传统笔墨的表现形式有了一个较为深刻的认识。这为她以后创作个性化的作品积累了一笔丰厚的无形财富。
      勤“问”
      中国书画同源，中国书法和绘画都是通过笔墨表现形象，为拓展自己对中国画艺术的表现力，杨帆采用了绘画、书法兼习的方法，以书入画，并拜庐山书法大师吴光才先生为师，在他的指导下临写颜欧诸家名帖。如《麻姑仙坛记》、《九成宫》等名家字贴。
在学习书法的过程中，吴光才老师说，小杨帆嘴很甜，老是问这问那，碰到一点疑问，“打破沙锅问到底”。正是由于勤思好问，使她领悟到了许多书法和绘画的相通之处。
为了让传统艺术能与现代技艺更好的结合，１９９８年，杨帆考进青岛艺术学院美术专业深造，２００２年又在江西蓝天学院学习电脑艺术设计。五年的大学生涯，通过发扬“好问”精神，在老师的教导下，她较为系统地学习西画技艺。主要是素描、水粉装饰艺术等。这为她以后创作打下了造型的基础。


      勤“练”
      “纸上得来终觉浅，绝知此事要躬行”，光说不练，那都是空把式。杨帆深深懂得这一点。父亲对她要求很严格，无论是春夏秋冬，他都叫她定时定点到室外进行基本功训练，回来结合写生进行加工、提炼。每幅作品要求构图严谨，用笔用墨都要力求在画面上表现形象意境的完美。母亲则耐心指导她“春看迎春夏观荷，秋赏菊花冬咏梅”，对庐山的山石树木，风雨雾雪都要细心观察。面向生活，投身大自然，以大自然为师，才会偶有神思之作奔来笔下。
为画出“飞流直下三千尺，疑是银河落九天”的瀑布气势，杨帆爬庐山秀峰不下十次，有一次脚磨出了血泡，父亲帮她刺破血泡，敷点药水，继续爬山，直到画出满意的写生画为止；云雾是庐山的灵魂，为展现庐山云雾的神韵，杨帆趴在观云亭写生，往往一趴就是半天，有时画完回家，她才发现身上已有蚊虫送给她的十多个“红包”；瀑布云是庐山最美却极难一见的壮丽自然景观，不必说去捕捉瀑布云时那种一年难遇一回的辛苦。往往等杨帆好不容易碰上一回，正在挥笔疾绘之时，却时而被烟云万变、泅云飞渡，模糊视线，只能回来，以默写的形式记录自然瞬间景象；“暮色苍茫看劲松”，庐山松是有性格的，它既是中国绘画的传统题材，又象征坚毅、倔强、“咬定青山不放松”的高洁品格，写松不在于形而在于神韵，因为执着，杨帆画的松树，抓住了松树的精神，这在她的《万古常青图》等作品中都有很好的体现。
      一份艰辛一份收获，由于杨帆的勤看、勤思、勤问、勤练，如今，她创作的作品已有千余幅，部分书画作品先后在庐山、九江、南昌、井冈山、深圳及日本等地展出。庐山画坛的一颗新苗正在茁壮成长。
杨帆说，以山为巢，扎根庐山。她希望通过不断地耕耘，让自己的思想随着作品，顺三叠泉的瀑布，泛鄱湖，下长江，飘洋过海，扬帆千里，永不止步。

 
]]> 中国经济巨龙“缩水”40% http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/72994699.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/72994699.html#comment 石头丁 Sun, 9 Dec 2007 22:16:13 +0800 读书笔记 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/72994699.html A less fiery dragon?Nov 29th 2007
From The Economist print edition
China may be a smaller economic giant than previously thought
­
AMERICANS who spend their time fretting about when their economy will be overtaken by China will have gleefully leapt upon new numbers suggesting that China's economy may in fact be 40% smaller than current estimates. However, the new figures, if confirmed, would also mean that the world economy has been growing rather more slowly in recent years than officially reported by the IMF, which is less salutary for everyone.
　　
It is not the Chinese government that has been exaggerating the size of its GDP, but international organisations, such as the World Bank and the IMF, which measure each nation's output in terms of purchasing-power parity (PPP). If China's GDP is converted into dollars using market exchange rates it amounted to $2.7 trillion last year, only one-fifth of America's $13.2 trillion, and the fourth-largest in the world. But a dollar buys a lot more in China than in America because prices of many non-traded goods and services tend to be much lower in poor economies. Converting a poor country's GDP into dollars at market exchange rates therefore understates the true size of its economy.
­
Instead many economists prefer to convert GDPs into dollars using PPPs, which take account of price differences between countries. The Economist's Big Mac index is a crude measure of PPP. Much more sophisticated estimates are produced by the International Comparison Programme, co-ordinated by the World Bank, which gathers prices for more than 800 goods and services in countries around the globe. On a PPP basis, the World Bank ranks China as the world's second-biggest economy, with a GDP of $10 trilion last year. At its recent pace of growth, China's GDP could overtake America's by 2010.
­
The World Bank's estimate for China is widely used by economists. Yet few realise that it is based on a lot of guesswork, as the bank's previous international price surveys have not included China. Instead, it extrapolated from a study of prices in America and China that dates all the way back to the 1980s. The bank's latest price-comparison study, due to be published in mid-December, does include China for the first time, and preliminary evidence indicates that its GDP has been overstated in the past. In a recent article in the Financial Times, Albert Keidel, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that PPP figures published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), as part of its input into the World Bank's International Comparison Programme, implied that China's GDP was 40% smaller than the number reported by the World Bank. Interestingly, the new figure is very close to what the Big Mac index has indicated all along.
­
Mr Keidel's claim is itself based on some guesswork. The ADB report does not actually reveal the yuan's revised PPP rate against the dollar, as it only compares prices with those in Hong Kong, not America. To derive dollar PPPs Mr Keidel has assumed that relative prices in Hong Kong and America have not changed since previous studies. If this holds, then China's implied GDP is indeed 40% smaller than before. The World Bank says that it is still discussing the final numbers. Note, however, that the ADB figures imply that India's GDP is also now 40% smaller, even though India has taken part in previous international pricing surveys (suggesting that Hong Kong's PPP may in fact have changed). It is thus possible that China's GDP may be trimmed by less than 40% when the World Bank publishes its final report.
­
Assume for a moment that Mr Keidel's figure of 40% is correct, then China's GDP in PPP terms is slashed from $10 trillion to $6 trillion. That would still leave it as the world's second-largest economy, but it would not overtake America for at least another ten years. India, on the other hand, would drop from third to fifth place in the world ranking.
Adjusting the global speedometerChina would probably be quite happy to see its GDP revised down, hoping that America might stop picking on a smaller, poorer economy. But revised PPPs would not only change international rankings, they would also affect the pace of global growth. To calculate world GDP growth, individual countries' growth rates are weighted by their share of world output. Using PPP weights, as the IMF does, the world economy has grown by an average of 5% over the past five years, its strongest pace since the early 1970s. This is largely because emerging economies have been growing by 7.5% a year (compared with only 2.3% in the G7 developed economies), and they account for around half of world GDP. But if China and India are 40% smaller than previously thought, world growth would be trimmed to 4.5%.
­
­
The difficulty of measuring PPP is one reason why some economists prefer to compare the sizes of economies using market exchange rates. After all, it is argued, countries trade with each other at market rates, so these provide the best basis for comparison. Measured this way, world growth over the past five years has been a still more modest 3.4%. Far from being the fastest pace for decades, that is slower than in the 1980s (see left-hand chart). So has the global boom been a mirage? A closer look at the numbers shows that this cannot be right. Measured at market exchange rates, emerging economies' share of global output last year was less than in 1980 (see right-hand chart), even though they have been growing more than twice as fast as the rich economies. The increase in their share of global energy consumption, from 43% in 1980 to 55% in 2006, also confirms that their weight in the world economy has surely risen.
­
The raw dollar numbers are distorted by big currency swings. For instance, the devaluations in East Asian economies in 1997-98 grossly exaggerated the drop in their output. Measured at PPP, emerging economies' share of world output has more realistically risen since 1980—and even if China's economy is smaller than thought, it is still a mighty beast. PPP data may be imperfect, but they give a better picture of the relative size of economies than market exchange rates do. In the words of John Maynard Keynes, “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.”
]]> 美股见底的11个理由 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/72197210.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/72197210.html#comment 石头丁 Sat, 1 Dec 2007 22:35:40 +0800 笔记·翻译 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/72197210.html By Donald Luskin  Published: November 30, 2007

眼下正处在底部。

是的，我明白在11月市场高位的时候说买入是太早了些。但是，现在，所有的典型信号都在表明长期底部的到来。让我们逐一叙说。

1.周一的抛售（美股）是典型的恐慌杀跌。这是你必须看清的一种情绪高潮，在你确信每个人都将要卖出的时候。

2.撇开恐慌，股市未创造比8月底部更低的低点。还有随着大量的银行坏帐浮出水面，消息面变得更坏了。但这告诉我一个现实，看起来是是坏了，但是远比最坏的担忧要好。

3.在周一收市时，我的估值模型显示股票比1984年以来的任何时候都要便宜（这是我模型中可信的数据变得可用之时）。在2002年10月9日，自大萧条之后的第二个大底和第二大熊市时，我的模型显示55%的股票被底估了。周一时，同一个模型显示59%的股票被底估。

4.周一收市时标志着在这轮牛市中股指首次下跌超过10%.周二早上，媒体充斥着这是进行“正式修正”----而且大多数数据统计暗示着进一步的下跌是确定的。媒体，如同民间传说的简单化的市场迷思，在转折点上总是犯错。

5.周二早上，表面上很一致，一个爆炸性的新闻催化剂般出现在显示屏上，苦难中的花旗银行宣布获得阿布答比投资70亿美元资本注入。这意味着，关于这家大银行将因缺失运营资金或将分解的忧虑，站不住脚。

6.阿本答比对花旗的投资意味着，股票变得非常非常廉价。这样大笔的投资只花了70亿美元，只有在股票折价得非常深时才出现。

7.与此类似，弗雷迪·麦克，政府主办的抵押投资巨人，也急需资金输血，并在公开市场上寻求。其首选的股票发行获得了超额认购，渴望的投资者们热衷于以低廉的价格入股获得这个特权机构的一部分。

8.自周一起，一些真正骇人的新闻出来但市场不再陷入惊慌。周四佛罗里达州养老金在货币市场基金上巨大损失的故事，如果在上周出来，将会留下一个股市大坑。但现在，股市只是耸耸肩。

9.撇开对于迫近的不景气的广泛担忧，企业利润持续引人注目的强。考虑金融部门后的修正只是轻微地向下拖累总体的赢利----但即使是包括这些金融损失在内，标普500的预期盈利只比历史最高时少一个百分点。如果剔除金融板块，标普500其余公司的预期利润将创下空前纪录。

10.当许多人担心联储在即将到来的12月11日的会议上不会降息时，联储主席伯南克和副主席唐纳德本周的演讲使之变得美丽而清晰----实事上将降息。即便他们看到经济依然强劲，他们也想避免因流动性紧张以修正低迷的信贷市场。

另一面的争论是什么？你当然无须我告诉你那些。只需打开任意的报纸，浏览任何的财经网站，或者观看任何一个商业电视台。悲观主义正猖獗。厄运的教主们正在每个街角宣讲金融的末日之战。

11.有太多的悲观主义，太多的末日说，太多的低迷，如此绝对地肯定美国和世界其他国家开始进入衰退----或者变坏！----这些不可能是正确的。绝大多数人一致同意的从来没有对过。从来没有。

我要就此打住。通常这个专栏会是这篇的两倍长，但是时候了，最好保持简单。

而且它确定简单。当每个人都惊慌时你要买股票。或者更精准一些，当每个人都惊慌，并且惊慌开始慢慢平息时，你要买股票。这会儿我们所处的时机更精准了。这会是非常的时机，如果你有勇气抓住它。

]]> 绿色住宅在美国 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/71595187.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/71595187.html#comment 石头丁 Mon, 26 Nov 2007 00:36:48 +0800 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/71595187.html

]]> 平台VS内容VS搜索 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/57664910.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/57664910.html#comment 石头丁 Tue, 31 Jul 2007 14:26:06 +0800 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/57664910.html
平台VS内容VS搜索

发表时间：2007年7月31日 14时21分

http://user.qzone.qq.com/5603757

 

[%repeat_0 match="/data/option"%] [%_repeat_0%]
[%=@title%] [%=@count%]票 [[%=@percent%]％]

提交
财经人会是黄金人么？
财经网如何做第一名？
大家都在思考的话题，长线来看，靠的是平台与内容。
平台是什么，就是载体。一个大家都能找得到的载体。门户是，搜索是，博客是，贴吧也是。只要给了世界一个个统统告知的实现方式，就是平台。
内容是什么，是信息的本质。财经专家的内容是独到的理解与见解，证券操手的内容是实战体验及其分享，小道消息的内容是信息的不对称，平台的内容是留住用户的产品。
平台为王，内容为王。平台越大越好，无所不包，无所不载。内容越细越好，绝无同质化，绝无二样。
架通平台与内容的另一个王者是检索。是信息的检索方式。越简单越好，一键揽天下。

]]> 家电信贷消费的前景 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/55505155.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/55505155.html#comment 石头丁 Mon, 16 Jul 2007 23:17:01 +0800 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/55505155.html
家电信贷的前景
http://user.qzone.qq.com/5603757/blog/18
发表时间：2007年7月12日 23时41分 [%repeat_0 match="/data/option"%] [%_repeat_0%]
[%=@title%] [%=@count%]票 [[%=@percent%]％]

提交
    今天有幸参加苏宁的家电信贷消费趋势论坛。信用体系零散而不健全，困扰着在国外已经是很成熟的家电信贷消费模式在国内的迅速成熟。作为先行者，苏宁的信贷消费在华北地区已经占到了10%以上的营业额，范志军副总裁透露的数字无疑令人振奋。各路研究专家云集，小子为门外汉，未敢妄言。
    赴会前，临时抱佛脚，查阅了一些资料，隐约知道，眼下搞家电信贷消费，最大的障碍是国内的消费信用缺失。一些散乱的看法归纳如下。
1.信用缺失，不是缺少有信用的人，而是缺少有信用的人的信用记录。
2.大宗商品，大到住房，可以物权抵押，银行按揭风险得到回避。不大不小的物品，如汽车（当然也有贵过房产的汽车），因车上装着轮子，所以纵然可以抵押，风险大过住房信贷，于是大的银行慢慢就不做了，而生产汽车的大公司们慢慢地接过了这项业务，于是汽车金融公司诞生了。
比汽车再小的家电消费信贷，联合苏宁一起作业的国内中小商业银行定的门槛是1500元以上。这是一个有意思的事情。
3.比1500再少一些，估计中小商业银行也不做了。那么谁来做呢，是城市社区银行，还是城市信用合作机构呢？
4.于是，跟苏宁范志军副总裁聊到是否有人愿意成立家电金融公司的事，或者家电信贷合作社，专门做这些家电的信用消费，为分期付款者提供资金或担保。
5.对照互联网上发生的事情，家电信贷消费其实有很多可以借鉴的。从厂家到卖场，是B2B，从拍拍到个人，是C2C，从目前来看，B2B与C2C，前者有厂商与卖方的多种契约保证，电子商务规模迅速扩大，C2C的小额经营，有了财富通、支付宝做了信用池和中介，个人信用的缺失被第三方的信用池子所替换，巧妙实现功能过渡。难的还是B2C，从商家到个人。亚马逊、当当、卓越卖书卖碟等小额商品，信用卡支付或货到付款，也没有问题。受到困扰的还是家电这些价格不高也不菲的商品，既有可能要退货，又有可能不还钱，银行和商家如何能放手作为？是像招行的电子商城那样孤军奋斗小打小闹，还是联手苏宁这样的家电大卖场共同推进？或者几家小银行加上厂家和苏宁一起，分别出资，共同做一个风险共担利益同享的家电信用社？
6.当然，无论如何家电信贷消费前景喜人，先行者已经具备了先行的条件。既有电子商务网站，更有遍布全国的门店，渠道加网络加厂商关系具备，适当调整利益关系和信用关系，赢来家电信用消费和电子商务的大发展，为期不远矣。 
]]> iPhone: One buyer's tale of woe http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/53164190.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/53164190.html#comment 石头丁 Sun, 1 Jul 2007 11:22:45 +0800 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/53164190.html http://user.qzone.qq.com/5603757

iPhone: One buyer's tale of woe

The wait was over. But our correspondent's husband found it wasn't so easy to tap into the magic.

By Abigail Heffernan, CNNMoney.com contributing writer
June 30 2007: 8:33 PM EDT
 

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/30/technology/iphone_tale/index.htm?postversion=2007063020
 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Finally, the wait was over. The much-heralded iPhone was here.

People across the country diligently stood in line waiting for the "next coming" - the delivery of a magic device that would transport them to the next level of cool.

pic
An iPhone customer eyes the goods in New York Friday.
Video More video
Apple's widely anticipated iPhone makes its retail debut. CNN's Maggie Lake reports
Play video

Me on the other hand, I was part of the lengthy list of "uncool" media people who weren't knighted with early access to the iPhone by the all-knowing, all-powerful Steve Jobs. Thus I was forced to send my husband, Tim, to our local AT&T store to brave the crowds for the next new gadget. What the heck, I figured, he likes that stuff anyway.

He arrived at the store around 5 o'clock to find a line of 25 people already queued up outside. He joined the others camped out on the sidewalk with their Apple computers (no PCs allowed) "borrowing" the neighborhood wireless (and sporadically being kicked off) and instant messaged me the latest updates in his noble quest for the elusive iPhone.

At the witching hour of 6 p.m., the doors to all the enchanted Apple and AT&T stores opened, with employees cheering buyers on as they rushed to lay out their $500 to $600 for the sleek new phone. Some places were more orderly than others - allowing only five people into the store at a time. After more than an hour of waiting outside the store for each group to get their toys, Tim instant messaged me again, "I'm in!"

About an hour later, as I was heading out of the office when my own non-iPhone cellphone rang.

"Hello?"

"iTunes is down." Tim said despondently.

"What?"

"iTunes. You have to register your phone and sign up through iTunes and it's not letting me in. Can you imagine what it's going to be like at 9 p.m. when the whole West Coast starts trying to sign on?"

Oh boy.

So, being the intrepid iPhone user he is, Tim headed to the local Starbucks to figure out how to get connected. After 45 minutes of trying, iTunes finally granted him entry, and he stepped through hoop after hoop of activation - not to mention the 100 megabytes of downloads to upgrade the thing. On the last step he received an error:

"We're sorry, AT&T has determined that your account cannot be used with the iPhone."

Apparently, if you ever had a corporate discount on your account or if you were ported from Cingular to AT&T after the merger, your account ends up with a "business code" on it. After spending another 30 minutes on the phone with AT&T and Apple - and sending a nasty note to Apple tech support - you get a courtesy response: "We realize that this is not a business phone and are working diligently to fix the known problem." Which apparently takes a full 24 to 72 hours to fix.

Upon reading the fine print further and wading through some legalese, it turns out that if you are a CRU (Corporate Responsibility User - someone who uses their phone primarily for business and a company pays for it) or a SLB (Split Liability Billing User - someone whose employer is responsible for part, but not all of the wireless bill) you have roughly 3 options:

1. Sign up for a new "consumer line" phone and get a completely new phone number (Now, correct me if I am wrong here, but doesn't that defeat the whole purpose of the iPhone?)

2. Activate the phone and then associate it with your company, but lose any discount you might usually get.

3. Return the darn thing.

So, back into line he went - and he wasn't alone. There were at least 10 other people there, angrily trying to straighten their accounts out.

Well, a day later the mythical iPhone still sits like a brick on our kitchen table. No cool graphics, no music, no Google Maps.

And the problem even has Apple "Geniuses" stumped. One rep was kind enough to sit on hold for us for three hours while she waited for an AT&T rep, periodically sending us encouraging emails like "service should be restored soon," and "AT&T says that in 12 hours your service should be available."

I've come to decide it makes a really nice paperweight, and if I ever needed to dial 911, it might work. The iWait continues.

"So why did I stand in line?" Tim said. "Because I am an idiot," he said, noting the spelling: iDiot. 

]]> 如何避免在股市空难中破产 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/52514003.html http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/52514003.html#comment 石头丁 Tue, 26 Jun 2007 21:45:44 +0800 http://kbin001.blog.sohu.com/52514003.html 如何避免在股市空难中破产

http://user.qzone.qq.com/5603757/blog/15

北京，昨天，37度高温。股市上却发生着一场空难，指数未创新低，二成个股已经领跌创下新低。对于坐在券商营业厅或办公室电脑前看着股市一路盘跌的普通投资者来说，寒意远甚于酷暑。
对于先知先觉的理性投资者来说，这波的下跌早在预期当中，恋战者和新入市者依然在市场中搏杀，或者博傻。
如何在股灾中避免破产，这个在牛市中极不合时宜的话题，油然浮出水面。
一、保有流动资金
当一个人浑身是债或股票时，在此震荡多变的市场中，很难相信他会没有一个不眠之夜。住房按揭，其他贷款，都按月供，手头流着足够的现金，千万别把钱都变成股票，或者一次还清所有的贷款不留一分。手头没有足够现金的时候，不可预知的大小灾难会不时而至。相信连日的下跌已经让你我有切肤之痛。
二、慢慢来
没错，看到股价飚升的时候，恨不得当了房子去投资，股票套起来的时候到处借钱补仓。别眼热快钱，除非你是更快的快钱。都在说热钱进出的时候，咱别做眼热钱。如同房贷慢慢还一样，投资收益也追求稳步前行。一夜暴富永远是神话，神话发生几率太低。
三、股票收益要多少
好多人翻了好几倍了。百年不遇的机遇。从久来看，剔除通胀率，我只想要我的投资组合岁入10%，不管是分红，或是股价增值，足矣。当然，越庞大的投资组合，越要有充足的资金护佑。
四、要不要炒金
股市到了高点，炒金之声又盛。要不要炒金呢？我从来不是一个黄金投资的粉丝，虽然我知道从上世纪70年代以来，全球金价在极宽的范围内大幅波动，低点是35美元每盎司，高点似乎900美元。但也有一天一天跌得极惨的时候。不炒金的理由很简单，他没有股息啊。真要投资，不如投资金饰珠宝，或者买投资于贵重金属的股票基金。如果不是需要黄金的光华来光耀自身，炒金，真的有意义么？
五、看好基金
美元天天在跌，人民币天天在涨，买基金是好选择。投资于全球股市的共同基金和ETF基金们是最好的选择，此外还有好多其他的基金，前景无边。

]]>